How to win the 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries?

This is the 1 billion dollar question for most spin doctors and other advisors to the various Democratic primary candidates. Actually unless  a big surprise according to the latest polls   and political comments the election should be between 5 candidates: Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Pete Buttigieg and the last one to run Michael Bloomberg. Indeed in the air of a digital society it is no longer enough to be the best public speaker but above all to be a good digital strategy manager. In this article I will tell you how adopting a good digital marketing strategy is essential and give you the keys to forecast Donald Trump's future opponent.

1° A brief presentation of the different big candidates:

 Joe Biden: Joe Biden Vice President of the United States during the two presidency terms of Barack Obama. He embodies the central wing and the establishmentof the Democratic Party with more than forty years of political life. He has long been the only favourite (and is still at the top of the polls) but his possible conflict of interest with his son in Ukraine as well as his many blunders and even his age could make him lose.

Bernie Sanders: The oldest and most left-wing Democrat had raised passions against Hillary Clinton in 2016. He presents himself as a socialist, a word that is still taboo in the United States and advocates, for example, universal health coverage and free public universities. His very left-wing positioning and recent health concerns could cause him to lose.

Elizabeth Warren: A former Harvard professor, she is also the left wing of the Democratic Party. She is known for her stand against the "abuses" of global finance and her determined opposition to Donald Trump. She proposes to establish a new tax on large fortunes, and on profits in particular to finance an ecological transition plan. Having convinced during the first debates , it was for a moment in the lead in the polls but the vagueness of its proposals in budgetary terms could make her lose.

Pete Buttigieg:  The youngest and least known of the candidates, he is considered a moderate democrat who wants a democratic capitalism and very progressive on the societal level. It could be the very large surprize of its primaries it is currently leading the first states to give their votes but its moderation and the lack of support from some minorities could make it lose.

Michael Bloomberg:  11 th richest man in the world  in the world and first for a few years, Michael Bloomberg is a special case. The former mayor of New York was a Republican, Democrat and Independent and is therefore considered a pragmatic both fiscally conservative and progressive on environmental issues. He comes to start the race which is very late and generates a great risk but his announcement constituted my willingness to write this article because he intends to win the battle thanks to a well targeted digital marketing campaign rather than by his talents as public speaker during the debates in which he could not or will not participate (as he finances his campaign alone, he does not receive financial support which is the entry  ticket to  have access to  the debates) His late arrival and some of the policies he has put in place discriminating against the black minority could make him lose out.

2° The key to winning  a election in the 21st century? Talking to your target audience:

   Even if each candidate would like to convince 100% of the voters everyone knows (and even more so in the usa) that this is impossible and that it can even be counterproductive. Do you want proof? Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in the last election but lost the election because she was less able to speak to her target audience than Donald Trump. Indeed each candidate has his own speaking audience. 

  Biden represents the Democratic establishment and could therefore be in a good position in the neighbouring states of Washington D.C. but above all he must focus his strategy on the southeast states thanks to his bromance with Barack Obama make him keep a great popularity among the black electorate. Born into a modest Pennsylvania family, he could also win the votes of the white middle and working classes in the states of the midwest. 

Bernie Sanders the Socialist candidate is the most radical of the Democratic candidates, but no longer the only alternative to the left of the party. His target audience is young people, and he will likely see this base of voters increase in 2020 as a result of the greater number of Z generation bridging peers. According to some articles, he would be the most popular politician in the country but his echoing reasonably well in the neighboring states of his Vermont where he was mayor of the larger city Burlington and in the states of the Great Lakes region. It could also replicate its good performance in the west and particularly in the states of Oregon and Washington.

Elisabeth Warren comes directly to hunt on the progressive lands of Sanders. Also focusing primarily on the middle class it should also achieve good scores in the midwest states. As former teacher at Harvard and less radical than Sanders. She could also pull off the game in the two states behemoths that are New York and California.

Pete Buttigieg  is leading the polls for the first Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary. This is a good point because it can launch a campaign. It should easily seduce part of the LGBT electorate and it seems popular in states where the state is both older, white and educated. Polls are much less favorable in states where black or Latino minorities are more numerous.

Michael Bloomberg has meanwhile launched a disruptive campaign by buying the word 'climate' on Google and tries  to pull the  democratic primaries campaign towards him. By placing climate change at the heart of his campaign, he seeks to speak to a young (Generation Z) and progressive electorate. But he also relies on his past as a great financier and leader to reassure a more centrist electorate. His good management of the city of New York where he was reelected 3 times will give him an advantage in this state and his strategy is to make an all in the states suppliers of many electors already giving up small states in start of campaign. 

3°  My forecast: 

   Considering the advanced age of Bernie Sanders and his health problems. I think Elizabeth Warren will be better able to win the states wanting a more left-wing turn of the Democratic Party than him. I also think that Bloomberg fails in its bet that is still really risky even if his campaign is disruptive and modern. The big question is Biden will  transform its adavantage in polls into real votes in the rust bell states where Hilary Clinton won the primaries but lost the election. Finally Buttibieg seems to have a too small segment to be in a position to win the nomination.

 I think the election will be very open but I think today that Bloomberg will lose Biden and vice versa benefit Elizabeth Warren that I see winning its primary Democrats.

You may not know it, but I am following a digital marketing course at Telfer in which I have the opportunity to acquire qualities that are really useful for your company.  I could advice you hire me